Mittwoch, Februar 01, 2006

International Crisis Group

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CrisisWatch N°30, 1 February 2006

Six conflict situations around the world deteriorated in January 2006, according to
the new issue of CrisisWatch,* released today.

Nepal’s political turmoil continued ahead of planned 8 February municipal elections
and amid a major escalation in violence between security forces and Maoists.
The situation in Sri Lanka is approaching outright civil war: January was the
deadliest month since the signing of the 2002 ceasefire. Côte d’Ivoire was shaken by
four days of violent rioting. Security deteriorated in Nigeria with a series of
apparently politically motivated attacks on oil production in the Delta region.
Kyrgyzstan’s breakdown gathered force as a string of political murders continued.
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program increased with Tehran’s breaking of UN seals on
three nuclear research facilities and subsequent international efforts to refer Iran
to the UN Security Council.
Three conflict situations showed improvement in January 2006. Somalia’s peace
process saw a breakthrough with the signing of the Aden declaration in Yemen on 5
January uniting rival factions of the transitional government.
There was cautious optimism for Liberia after the inauguration of Ellen
Johnson-Sirleaf as president. And Kuwait became the first Gulf state to
democratically replace a leader using a constitutional process.
For February 2006, CrisisWatch identifies Nepal and Sri Lanka as Conflict Risk
Alerts, or situations at particular risk of new or significantly escalated conflict
in the coming month. Conflict Resolution Opportunities are identified in Northern
Ireland and Sri Lanka.

TRENDS AND WATCHLIST SUMMARY
JANUARY 2006 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Côte d’Ivoire, Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Nepal, Nigeria, Sri Lanka
Improved Situations
Kuwait, Liberia, Somalia
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Burundi, Cambodia,
Central African Republic, Chad, Chechnya (Russia), China (internal), Colombia,
Cyprus, DR Congo, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Fiji, Georgia, Guinea,
Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India (non-Kashmir), Indonesia, Iraq, Israel/Occupied
Territories, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, Lebanon, Macedonia, Moldova,
Myanmar/Burma, Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), North Caucasus (non-Chechnya), North
Korea, Northern Ireland (UK), Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Republic of Congo,
Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Serbia & Montenegro, Sierra Leone, Somaliland (Somalia),
Sudan, Swaziland, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan,
Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
Venezuela, Western Sahara, Yemen, Zimbabwe
FEBRUARY 2006 WATCHLIST
Conflict Risk Alerts
Nepal, Sri Lanka

Conflict Resolution Opportunities
Northern Ireland (UK), Sri Lanka
* NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators - up and down arrows, conflict risk alerts, and
conflict resolution opportunities - are intended to reflect changes within countries
or situations from month to month, not comparisons between countries. For example,
no "conflict risk alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring
and is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is given only
where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.

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